The latest figures suggest that the surge in U.S. inflation we’ve been experiencing for the past two years is beginning to taper off. As of June, the consumer price index (CPI) has increased 3% year-on-year, a decrease from May’s 4% rise. To clarify, the CPI measures the rate of change in prices for everyday goods and services over a 12-month period. With the observed decrease in this rate, it’s apparent that the determined rate hikes are progressively reining in inflation.

However, it’s critical to clarify a common misunderstanding: a decrease in the inflation rate does not mean a decrease in prices. Rather, it implies a slowdown in the pace of price increases.

Let’s break down some specific movements:

  • The core CPI, which leaves out food and energy prices, rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 4.8% annually.
  • Food prices saw a modest increase of 0.1% over the month and a more substantial 5.7% increase year-on-year.
  • Energy prices rose 0.6% over the month but have decreased by 16.7% over the year.
  • Housing costs are persistently climbing, marking a 0.4% monthly increase and a 7.8% increase since June 2022.

In the context of a high-interest-rate environment, the U.S. economy demonstrated resilience in June, adding 209,000 jobs. Wages also trended upward, rising 4.4% compared to last year, while unemployment decreased to 3.6%.

As the CPI percentage continues to exceed the Federal Reserve’s 2% target and the labor market remains robust, it is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates again this year. Projections from the CME FedWatch Tool, which assesses market expectations of future Federal Reserve interest rate changes, predicts a 99.8% likelihood of an increase at the upcoming meeting. This could be followed by a pause in rate increases, with a potential rate cut forecasted as early as the fourth quarter of this year or early 2024.

Looking forward, we’ll be keeping a keen eye on the upcoming economic data and Q2 earnings reports to better understand the economic and inflation trajectory. We recommend tracking the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index reading for July, the US Census Bureau’s June Retail Sales report, and the quarterly financial reports from leading companies.

As always, we’re here to support you. Should you have any questions or wish to discuss your finances, please don’t hesitate to call our office at (435)773-9444.


  1. CPI June 2023: Inflation rose just 0.2%, less than expected as consumers get a break (
  2. Inflation cooled significantly in June, bringing price hikes close to normal levels – ABC News (
  3. 5 things to know about July’s CPI | WFLA


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